Sweetgrass Burrow
Friday morning, October 10, 2008 10:45 am est
Bless Pat, Mr. Dow just moved through 8317. We had some hope that we would not even need to touch on this subject today, but the next key gate is 7976 and after that, well, at this point does it really matter? Remember, don't fight the market, fight the panic. Then you can simply bend down and pick the dagger up off the ground.
PS
Anybody out there know Pat?
Friday, October 10, 2008
Wear the Fox, Shoot the Horse and Eat the Hen
Friday Morning here in Sweetgrass Burrow.
I will withdraw from my normal banner and go straight to the real stuff.
Here is the real stuff:
The DOW needs to climb over and stay above 8658. Last night's close of 8579.19 was dangerous and destructive. The danger lies in the fact that giving away 7% of the market's value in one session can become a catalysts for additional selling pressure based on nothing save panic. For all intent and purposes, the human race left the planet a couple of weeks ago. Six thousand years of recorded history went flying out the window and the most base of animal instincts kicked in. The problem with this condition is that humans generally like to think of themselves as anything but animal like and thus you two-leggers become lost in the dark, frozen with fear and unable to do anything but follow whatever comes running by. Those of us less gifted than you folk, intellectually speaking, can only sit by and watch. Laughing uncontrollably when we think your not looking.
The destruction comes in the form of long-term damage done to the mental health of the investing community in particular and the overall general populace as a whole. This negativity becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, driving consumers deeper and deeper underground, taking with them the capital needed for everyone to survive.
We must remember a simple fact of life. The sun, moon and stars were all sitting up in the sky last night and they will be there tonight as well, watching down. Should we ever find this statement to be proven untrue, then we will really have something to worry about. Otherwise, life goes on. And on. And on.
Greed and fear have given way to panic and more panic. This will give way sooner or later to pure exhaustion and then we can begin to pick up the pieces. Til then, we can only watch in amazement/amusement as the smartest creatures in the forest continue to act in the silliest of ways.
A wise ol' friend of mine, an owl of some years and experience, likes to remind all of us here in the Burrow that the surest way to make God laugh is to tell him your plans.
He must laugh a great deal!
I will withdraw from my normal banner and go straight to the real stuff.
Here is the real stuff:
The DOW needs to climb over and stay above 8658. Last night's close of 8579.19 was dangerous and destructive. The danger lies in the fact that giving away 7% of the market's value in one session can become a catalysts for additional selling pressure based on nothing save panic. For all intent and purposes, the human race left the planet a couple of weeks ago. Six thousand years of recorded history went flying out the window and the most base of animal instincts kicked in. The problem with this condition is that humans generally like to think of themselves as anything but animal like and thus you two-leggers become lost in the dark, frozen with fear and unable to do anything but follow whatever comes running by. Those of us less gifted than you folk, intellectually speaking, can only sit by and watch. Laughing uncontrollably when we think your not looking.
The destruction comes in the form of long-term damage done to the mental health of the investing community in particular and the overall general populace as a whole. This negativity becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, driving consumers deeper and deeper underground, taking with them the capital needed for everyone to survive.
We must remember a simple fact of life. The sun, moon and stars were all sitting up in the sky last night and they will be there tonight as well, watching down. Should we ever find this statement to be proven untrue, then we will really have something to worry about. Otherwise, life goes on. And on. And on.
Greed and fear have given way to panic and more panic. This will give way sooner or later to pure exhaustion and then we can begin to pick up the pieces. Til then, we can only watch in amazement/amusement as the smartest creatures in the forest continue to act in the silliest of ways.
A wise ol' friend of mine, an owl of some years and experience, likes to remind all of us here in the Burrow that the surest way to make God laugh is to tell him your plans.
He must laugh a great deal!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Horses, Hens and Foxes
Good Morning! Good Morning!
Welcome Back! Welcome Back!
I hope this reunion finds all of you in relatively good health and spirits! Yes, i say "welcome back" because it is all of you who have gone away, not I. Tis' true it has been over a year since my last musings (August 15, 2007) I have stayed the post and waited for any corresponding that might have come my way. Alas, none of you found the time to write ol' Nezer even the simplest of lines to check on my condition. And low and behold, a few little thunder clouds begin to move in and all of a sudden i am the Belle of the Ball. I am practical if nothing else and as such truly tickled to have received your desperate cries for help, let us put aside these silly points and greet each other with the warmest of embraces!
As such let me welcome you all back to our little corner of the world, The Burrow. Sweetgrass Burrow to be particular. I say particular because there are many such places scattered around with names like Pluff Mud Burrow or Daniel's Burrow or even Burow's Burrow. Thus a rabbit must use care when giving directions to one not familiar with the various little turns and twists that go into making up the scenery we all travel upon. I find myself dwelling on this term "PARTICULAR" with more and more frequency during the last few weeks as a tide of sheer panic seems to have moved over the whole earth. I say "PARTICULAR" because the rising waters are now creating a marketplace where "NOTHING" is "PARTICULAR".
I present for your consideration:
Talking Heads!
I imagine if one's worth is measured in one's ability to predict the future and the future predicting business has been in the gutter lately to the point where everyone (and with the most humble of intentions i reiterate the phrase EVERYONE save one strikingly good looking greybeard of a hare) has been completely and embarrassingly wrong for the better part of a year then it stands to reason that the volume levels on predictions and ass-coverings and new predictions and even newer ass-coverings would get turned way way way up! I have a two-legger (those new to the world of cotton-tails and carrots: see Human) who likes to use a term to describe this very maneuver when witnessed. He calls it "dizzying up the girl". Dance and sing and scream and shout till all watching lose their place and you can attempt to distance yourself from the Merlot you clumsily poured all over the just-purchased white RUCKSTUHL rug in the home of your former friend and host. we have idiot savants who tell us to buy long term; then tell us to sell and go to cash/bonds; The ones-on-high (Big Dogs) point out the painful truth that a position of cash needs no watching and thus no business news channels. Ergo the services of screaming, talking head idiot-savants are not required and thus thus nor are the wonderfully over-paid management skills of ones-on-high. Clearly realizing the error of their ways, a charge of "Buy for long-term growth" is pushed through the systems [A. As it should always be and B. Are you dizzy yet?] In the dramatic, spell-binding last act, idiots the world over join in a united chorus of "SELL SELL SELL". Talent is always forced to face the music scored by those safe and secure behind the scenes (see previous ones-on-high) and finally a proclamation to any poor fool still listening to "head for the hills" is offered up.
Welcome Back! Welcome Back!
I hope this reunion finds all of you in relatively good health and spirits! Yes, i say "welcome back" because it is all of you who have gone away, not I. Tis' true it has been over a year since my last musings (August 15, 2007) I have stayed the post and waited for any corresponding that might have come my way. Alas, none of you found the time to write ol' Nezer even the simplest of lines to check on my condition. And low and behold, a few little thunder clouds begin to move in and all of a sudden i am the Belle of the Ball. I am practical if nothing else and as such truly tickled to have received your desperate cries for help, let us put aside these silly points and greet each other with the warmest of embraces!
As such let me welcome you all back to our little corner of the world, The Burrow. Sweetgrass Burrow to be particular. I say particular because there are many such places scattered around with names like Pluff Mud Burrow or Daniel's Burrow or even Burow's Burrow. Thus a rabbit must use care when giving directions to one not familiar with the various little turns and twists that go into making up the scenery we all travel upon. I find myself dwelling on this term "PARTICULAR" with more and more frequency during the last few weeks as a tide of sheer panic seems to have moved over the whole earth. I say "PARTICULAR" because the rising waters are now creating a marketplace where "NOTHING" is "PARTICULAR".
I present for your consideration:
Talking Heads!
I imagine if one's worth is measured in one's ability to predict the future and the future predicting business has been in the gutter lately to the point where everyone (and with the most humble of intentions i reiterate the phrase EVERYONE save one strikingly good looking greybeard of a hare) has been completely and embarrassingly wrong for the better part of a year then it stands to reason that the volume levels on predictions and ass-coverings and new predictions and even newer ass-coverings would get turned way way way up! I have a two-legger (those new to the world of cotton-tails and carrots: see Human) who likes to use a term to describe this very maneuver when witnessed. He calls it "dizzying up the girl". Dance and sing and scream and shout till all watching lose their place and you can attempt to distance yourself from the Merlot you clumsily poured all over the just-purchased white RUCKSTUHL rug in the home of your former friend and host. we have idiot savants who tell us to buy long term; then tell us to sell and go to cash/bonds; The ones-on-high (Big Dogs) point out the painful truth that a position of cash needs no watching and thus no business news channels. Ergo the services of screaming, talking head idiot-savants are not required and thus thus nor are the wonderfully over-paid management skills of ones-on-high. Clearly realizing the error of their ways, a charge of "Buy for long-term growth" is pushed through the systems [A. As it should always be and B. Are you dizzy yet?] In the dramatic, spell-binding last act, idiots the world over join in a united chorus of "SELL SELL SELL". Talent is always forced to face the music scored by those safe and secure behind the scenes (see previous ones-on-high) and finally a proclamation to any poor fool still listening to "head for the hills" is offered up.
Does the story of a missing horse and a barn door ring any bells?
Politicians!
I am sorry, for there is much to pen on this subject and most should be heard and read by as many as possible if we are to attempt to muster on. But the truth of the matter is I am tired and any reference to those who seek to lead till leadership is actually needed; scurrying away while shouting blame to all save themselves; those who constantly demand more and more from us to fix the problems that they created without OUR help, I am forever finished with them. All of them! Those over there and those over here. The short ones and the tall ones, the old ones and the young ones. Every one of them craves for the job of leading us as we go marching down the path. Yet, now that we find ourselves lost and hungry deep inside the forest with night rushing in and the growls and howls of every imaginable beast growing with each passing moment, they push and shove in their desperate attempts to reach the safety of a strong branch or limb. Secure in the arms of the tree, they then have the unmitigated gall to call down on us to be strong and fight! They must protect themselves for the good of the whole, ready to again take up the burden of service known as leadership when the current danger has been turned back. This type of leadership we do not need! Never. For the rest of our days.
Business Leaders
Have you stopped laughing yet?
I could go on and on for it has been seasons since last I needed to correspond with all of you. Yet strangely, I find myself weak and tired. The enormity of the battle waiting for all of us and the realization of the blood and sweat and tears we will be forced to offer up bruises my spirit for the moment.
But take heart my good friends! Your faithful rabbit will recharge the old batteries with a few good carrots and nice head of cabbage Then before you could locate a suitable lamb, catch it, procure its silly little tail and then give said tail a quick couple of shakes I will be back to normal. [To all of you tree huggers or animal rights nuts, take comfort for they don't feel a thing and it will grow back or so I've been told. I have never witnessed a rally or protest march whose goal was to put an end to the sick twisted practice of two-leggers carrying around one of my feet in hopes of generating good luck. Please!]
My Particular Conclusion!
Since October 7, 2007 when the Dow Jones hit an all-time high of 14198.10 the market has moved down a very painful 34% to yesterday's low of 9436.67 (Tuesday, October 7, 2008) This is bad, really really bad. Not good! Damage has been done to the very heart and soul of our nation and in fact the world. Your faithful and amazingly gifted servant posted the first short gate signal on Thursday, July 26, 2007 at the Dow level of 13409.52. Since then the market has tested and run down through our support gates of 12,000 and 10,600. Regarding value the market continues to be moved by the emotions of fear and greed and little else. In economic terms, we have witnessed on a world wide scale destructive and self-serving decisions from the collective political leadership of the planet. (More on this in the days to come.) There will be jagged and inconsistent movements of all markets till the US elections are completed the first week of November. However, there are key price levels that must be maintained if we are to have any hope of beginning to repair the damage done during the past few months. Failure to build support at these points is further evidence of future market erosion.
They are:
9341.14 This is a floating point gate that adjust as the market bumps around looking for direction. Remaining north of this number will be a beginning sign of confidence building. Anything south of this number reflects continued overall weakness.
9063.87 The next primary gate that must be maintained. Simple.
Our short signal from 13409.52 (Given real time July 26, 2007) will remain in effect. If the FPG of 9341.14 is broken though on further selling pressure and then followed by the sleeping kitty bounce (for all of you easily offended by various facts of this mortal stage) then we would begin to pay closer attention to closing the short position gate on a move upward to 9500-9682.
Finally, for all who pay attention to these things, yes there is a reason for today's title of Horses, Hens and Foxes. We have simply run out of the time-space continuum thing and thus are forced to tie this all up with tomorrows thoughts and comments. Till then, remember, a fluffy tail is a happy tail!
E Rabbit
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